The EU can no longer postpone the issue of enlargement. This autumn, it will have to confront the question head-on. Montenegro and Albania are already very close to membership, while Ukraine and Moldova are steadily meeting the criteria required for accession.
The big question is whether the EU itself is ready to manage a larger and more complex union under its current set of rules.
The EU has been designed to be capable of integrating additional member states, without any geographical restrictions. In other words, it can expand eastward, reaching deep into Asia, as several former Soviet republics view Europe as a security anchor.
But we can also look to the “other side,” as Iceland will decide this autumn whether it wants to join the EU. Iceland, for its part, has nothing left to do—it is ready for accession.
Enlargement is also essential for Brussels: through it, the EU seeks to consolidate its influence in its immediate neighborhood and extend security guarantees to new member states. These, in turn, would help the EU more effectively contain the influence of potentially hostile powers and ensure stability in the current tense geopolitical environment.
How Will the EU Work with 30 Member States?
In her 2023 State of the Union address, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced pre-accession reviews—a kind of roadmap outlining how the EU could function with 30 or more member states.
However, the plan has since been put aside, or, in official jargon, “frozen,” as Ukraine’s potential accession has made the enlargement issue considerably more complicated. The Commission has now taken the “frozen” document back off the shelf and will publish it on September 30.
As a result, enlargement has once again moved to the top of Brussels’ agenda, and a major debate is expected this autumn as European governments argue over how to handle the next wave of enlargement.
